Updated: Mar 1
Week in Review (Feb.16 – Feb.22)
Equities – SPY hit all-time highs at $339.08. Previous weeks high $338.12 appears to be possible double top. AAPL and MSFT show similar patterns with price being overbought for some time. Markets were whipsawed basically for this week with price only being sustained by continued repo injections.
Crypto – Bitcoin saw minor selloff and then bounced back above $10,300. Further minor selloff only served as consolidation as video analysis showed repeating bullflag pattern. Filter dots and RSI all lead to next stop being 11k or greater. We should see 13K in the next 6-8 weeks, with 20k-22k being end target of halving before selloff down to estimated 12k.
Looking Forward to (Feb.23 – Feb.29)
Equities – Market looking to take a correction as CoV worries intensify. We will look to bearish entries in AAPL, SPY, and MSFT. PRTY with earnings entry. With market uncertainty constantly being met with more liquidity from easy central banks, short positions are difficult to gauge for certainty. At this point, we will need to see confirmation to enter and only hold short periods of 2 days max (not over weekends most likely).
Crypto –Anything under recent all-time highs 13K is a buy. We are approaching halving and will have stock to flow cut in half. After passing 20k-22K, we will most likely selloff as has been the trend for 10 years. This will be an opportunity to reduce cost basis, try to trade GBTC, or enter new funds into bitcoin. After halving and consolidation, anything under 20K will be an ideal entry for 10x probable returns in 12-18 months holding.
1. MIT Scientists Give Recession 6 Months - https://www.ccn.com/u-s-recession-trigger-flashes-red-mit-scientists-give-it-6-months/
2. JP Morgan sees asset bubble - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/jp-morgans-kolanovic-sees-a-bubble-in-defensive-and-tech-stocks.html